An adaptive forecasting algorithm and inventory policy for products with short life cycles

Products with short life cycles are becoming increasingly common in many industries, such as the personal computer (PC) and mobile phone industries. Traditional forecasting methods and inventory policies can be inappropriate for forecasting demand and managing inventory for a product with a short life cycle because they usually do not take into account the characteristics of the product life cycle. This can result in inaccurate forecasts, high inventory cost, and low service levels. Besides, many forecasting methods require a significant demand history, which is available only after the product has been sold for some time. In this paper, we present an adaptive forecasting algorithm with two characteristics. First, it uses structural knowledge on the product life cycle to model the demand. Second, it combines knowledge on the demand that is available prior to the launch of the product with actual demand data that become available after the introduction of the product to generate and update demand forecasts. Based on the forecasting algorithm, we develop an optimal inventory policy. Since the optimal inventory policy is computationally expensive, we propose three heuristics and show in a numerical study that one of the heuristics generates near‐optimal solutions. The evaluation of our approach is based on demand data from a leading PC manufacturer in the United States, where the forecasting algorithm has been implemented. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2004.     

着眼装备信息化的长远发展积极科学的建设好装备基础数据库

信息化战争是信息化武器装备发展到成熟时期、新军事变革发展到高级阶段、社会变革跨入信息时代的最新战争模式。信息化战争离不开信息化的装备，装备信息化的建设也离不开装备管理的信息化，装备管理信息化的水平对装备信息化本身的发展会起到很重要的促进作用，装备基础数据库则是装备管理信息化的基础。本文将重点分析装备基础数据库建设的现状，阐述科学建设装备基础数据库的好处，并提出对建设通用装备基础数据库的几点思考。     

Value management of diagnostic equipment with cancelation,no‐show,and emergency patients

Magnetic resonance imaging and other multifunctional diagnostic facilities, which are considered as scarce resources of hospitals, typically provide services to patients with different medical needs. This article examines the admission policies during the appointment management of such facilities. We consider two categories of patients: regular patients who are scheduled in advance through an appointment system and emergency patients with randomly generated demands during the workday that must be served as soon as possible. According to the actual medical needs of patients, regular patients are segmented into multiple classes with different cancelation rates, no‐show probabilities, unit value contributions, and average service times. Management makes admission decisions on whether or not to accept a service request from a regular patient during the booking horizon to improve the overall value that could be generated during the workday. The decisions should be made by considering the cancelation and no‐show behavior of booked patients as well as the emergency patients that would have to be served because any overtime service would lead to higher costs. We studied the optimal admission decision using a continuous‐time discrete‐state dynamic programming model. Identifying an optimal policy for this discrete model is analytically intractable and numerically inefficient because the state is multidimensional and infinite. We propose to study a deterministic counterpart of the problem (i.e., the fluid control problem) and to develop a time‐based fluid policy that is shown to be asymptotically optimal for large‐scale problems. Furthermore, we propose to adopt a mixed fluid policy that is developed based on the information obtained from the fluid control problem. Numerical experiments demonstrate that this improved policy works effectively for small‐scale problems. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 63: 287–304, 2016     

稳像式火控系统实车训练装置的研制

该训练装置可以在安装稳像式火控系统的坦克上完成射击基础练习的训练与考核.它以单片机为核心,在射击操作与实车相同的条件下,具有自动检靶,自动记录发射数、命中数,自动变换目标,自动报警,自动评定和显示成绩等功能.射手可独自在坦克内操作,自行开始练习,自我检查操作结果.     

舰船结构塑性动力响应研究进展

从舰船结构塑性动力响应的工程背景出发,简要介绍了该问题当前的研究进展．主要评述了国内外学者所关注的一些基本问题和研究方法,主要包括解析法、近似法、数值法等,以及冲击载荷作用下梁、板、板架、壳体等结构塑性动力响应的研究进展．     

夹杂物对有机涂层下碳钢腐蚀初期过程的影响

选择两种具有典型夹杂物的碳钢,通过浸泡试验,研究有机涂层下碳钢的腐蚀初期过程,并和裸钢的腐蚀过程进行对比．结果表明：涂层试样和裸钢试样腐蚀发展的初期过程都是点蚀;涂层试样点蚀诱发孕育期大大长于裸钢试样;点蚀的主要诱发源是钢中的硫化物和硅酸盐;硫化物夹杂物诱发点蚀及点蚀的扩展主要沿夹杂物与基体间的相界进行．     

直接序列扩频通信抗干扰性能分析

简述了直接序列扩频通信基本原理,讨论了直接序列扩频通信的特点,对直接序列扩频通信系统的抗干扰能力进行研究,最后提出了几种用于提高该通信系统抗干扰能力的具体方法。     

抗日战争配合了盟军作战

抗日战争时期,中国远征军应邀入缅,在滇缅战场上英勇作战,配合盟军沉重抗击了日本侵略军,形成了有利的战略态势,为反法西斯战争的最后胜利奠定了坚实的基础,并作出了巨大的贡献。     

炮兵营射击的弹着点模拟及射击误差分析

弹着点模拟是对敌火力打击目标毁伤仿真的重要环节。在分析炮兵营射击误差构成与计算方法的基础上,研究建立了炮兵射击的弹着点散布蒙特卡洛(Monte-Carlo)仿真模型,实现了对集火射向、适宽射向、三距离射击等多种火力打击方式共同作用下的弹着点散布模拟,为目标毁伤仿真研究提供了模型支持。以此为基础,通过分析各组误差对毁伤概率的影响,发现对于炮兵营打击面散布目标来说,营共同误差是影响毁伤概率的最显著因素,应当通过提高测定目标位置和气象准备的精度减小误差以提高对目标的毁伤效果。     

Study of high-speed-impact-induced conoidal fracture of Ti alloy layer in composite armor plate composed of Ti-and Al-alloy layers

In order to understand the mechanism of conoidal fracture damage caused by a high-speed fragment-simulating projectile in titanium alloy layer of a composite armor plate composed of titanium- and aluminum-alloy layers, the ballistic interaction process was successfully simulated based on the Tuler-Butcher and GISSMO coupling failure model. The simulated conoidal fracture morphology was in good agreement with the three-dimensional industrial-computed-tomography image. Further, three main damage zones (zones I, II, and III) were identified besides the crater area, which are located respectively near the crater area, at the back of the target plate, and directly below the crater area. Under the high-speed-impact conditions, in zone II, cracks began to form at the end of the period of crack formation in zone I, but crack formation in zone III started before the end of crack formation in zone II. Further, the damage mechanism differed for different stress states. The microcracks in zone I were formed both by void connection and shear deformation. In the formation of zone I, the stress triaxiality ranged from-2.0 to-1.0, and the shear failure mechanism played a dominant role. The microcracks in zone II showed the combined features of shear deformation and void connection, and during the for-mation process, the stress triaxiality was between 0 and 0.5 with a mixed failure mode. Further, the microcracks in zone III showed obvious characteristics of void connection caused by local melting. During the zone III formation, the triaxiality was 1.0-1.9, and the ductile fracture mechanism was dominant, which also reflects the phenomenon of spallation.